Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Trocheck on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.5% vs Trocheck 56.0% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Nelson
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Trocheck
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
1
3
Nelson
Trocheck
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
1
Nelson
Trocheck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (871)
57.7% (608)
-7.1%
Power Play
58.1% (160)
64.0% (150)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (193)
44.1% (136)
-0.1%
On even strength, Trocheck has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (429).
Nelson shoots left. Trocheck is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (612).
Home / Away
Nelson
Trocheck
Home
52.3% (621)
54.4% (366)
Away
48.8% (603)
58.3% (528)
By Period
Nelson
Trocheck
P1
48.3%
56.0%
P2
53.4%
58.6%
P3
50.4%
55.3%
OT
41.2%
61.5%
Final 5 min
50.9%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
62.0%▲
54.5%
50.6%
Trocheck
56.0%▬
57.0%
56.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:26 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:31 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:27 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |