Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Trocheck on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Trocheck 56.0% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 68.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 70.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Nelson
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Trocheck
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
1
3
Nelson
Trocheck
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
1
Nelson
Trocheck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
57.8% (626)
-7.1%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
63.6% (151)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
44.0% (141)
-0.6%
On even strength, Trocheck has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Trocheck is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Nelson
Trocheck
Home
52.3% (621)
54.4% (390)
Away
48.9% (618)
58.3% (528)
By Period
Nelson
Trocheck
P1
48.4%
56.4%
P2
53.5%
58.7%
P3
50.3%
54.8%
OT
41.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.8%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:26 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:31 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:27 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |