Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Trocheck on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Trocheck 58.8% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Trocheck leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.0%
62.0%
38.0%
Nelson
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Nelson
Trocheck
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
1
3
Nelson
Trocheck
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
3
4
Nelson
Trocheck
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Trocheck
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
59.6% (1,032)
-8.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
62.1% (253)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
55.4% (249)
-3.5%
On even strength, Trocheck has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Trocheck is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,143).
Home / Away
Nelson
Trocheck
Home
52.5% (590)
61.7% (786)
Away
51.7% (619)
56.8% (748)
By Period
Nelson
Trocheck
P1
50.5%
61.7%
P2
54.4%
58.8%
P3
51.4%
57.6%
OT
47.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 04:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 18:09 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 07:00 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:50 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 09:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 09:14 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 00:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 06:15 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 10:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 06:29 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:44 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |