Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Trocheck on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Trocheck 55.6% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 78.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 73.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Nelson
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Nelson
Trocheck
Last 8: Nelson 2-6 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
3
Nelson
Trocheck
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
2
3
Nelson
Trocheck
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
55.0% (956)
-8.1%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
59.8% (266)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
56.3% (64)
-31.3%
On penalty kill, Trocheck has a +31.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Trocheck is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Home / Away
Nelson
Trocheck
Home
48.9% (521)
57.7% (673)
Away
45.5% (516)
54.3% (613)
By Period
Nelson
Trocheck
P1
45.9%
55.4%
P2
48.0%
55.6%
P3
48.0%
56.4%
OT
33.3%
83.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 18:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 02:39 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 12:32 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 01:05 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 07:46 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |