Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Nelson
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
58.5% (135)
-8.5%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
80.0% (5)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
44.4% (18)
-2.4%
On power play, Karlsson has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Nelson shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Nelson
Karlsson
Home
50.4% (472)
63.7% (91)
Away
48.6% (477)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Nelson
Karlsson
P1
47.2%
54.4%
P2
53.4%
66.7%
P3
47.8%
51.9%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | William Karlsson |