Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Karlsson 51.5% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.1%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 67.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.9%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Nelson
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Nelson
Karlsson
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Karlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Karlsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
2
4
Nelson
Karlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
51.4% (735)
-1.5%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
63.5% (115)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
42.9% (133)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Karlsson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Nelson
Karlsson
Home
49.8% (458)
52.3% (524)
Away
49.0% (506)
51.0% (459)
By Period
Nelson
Karlsson
P1
50.1%
50.7%
P2
45.4%
51.4%
P3
52.7%
53.2%
OT
33.3%
41.2%
Final 5 min
47.1%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2021 | OT | 04:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 16:43 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 14:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 10:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 07:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 11:39 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 01:05 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 01:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 00:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 2 | 14:36 | Neutral | William Karlsson |