Brock Nelson vs William Karlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 25 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Karlsson 51.3% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 40-33 in 73 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Nelson
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
40
(73 meetings)
33
40
Nelson
Karlsson
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
12
10
Nelson
Karlsson
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
12
14
Nelson
Karlsson
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
9
16
Nelson
Karlsson
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
51.8% (7,849)
-3.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
54.8% (1,048)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
44.2% (1,109)
-0.4%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
Nelson
Karlsson
Home
50.0% (5,845)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Nelson
Karlsson
P1
48.7%
50.3%
P2
48.5%
51.3%
P3
47.7%
52.4%
OT
45.6%
44.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 08:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 08:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 01:11 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 03:48 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | OT | 04:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 16:43 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 14:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 10:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 07:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |