Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.3%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 57.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Nelson
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Karlsson
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Nelson
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
55.3% (897)
-8.4%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
61.1% (113)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
50.8% (132)
-25.8%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Nelson
Karlsson
Home
48.9% (521)
58.6% (560)
Away
45.5% (516)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Nelson
Karlsson
P1
45.9%
55.8%
P2
48.0%
55.6%
P3
48.0%
55.7%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 08:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 01:11 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 03:48 | Offensive | William Karlsson |