Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 48.1% vs Ryan 55.2% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 66.7%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 72.8%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 67.9%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Jarnkrok
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Jarnkrok
Ryan
Last 10: Jarnkrok 3-7 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
4
Jarnkrok
Ryan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Jarnkrok
Ryan
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
1
Jarnkrok
Ryan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (3,354)
56.6% (4,102)
-7.3%
Power Play
51.9% (258)
53.2% (342)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (640)
47.8% (649)
-7.3%
On even strength, Ryan has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Jarnkrok is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,270).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Ryan
Home
50.6% (2,261)
56.2% (2,559)
Away
45.3% (1,991)
54.4% (2,534)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Ryan
P1
47.7%
55.1%
P2
48.0%
54.7%
P3
48.8%
56.0%
OT
40.5%
58.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2021 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 1 | 12:27 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 1 | 17:43 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Nov 26, 2017 | 3 | 05:09 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 3 | 03:19 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |