Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 48.1% vs Larkin 52.7% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 63.2%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 64.5%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 68.0%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
11
(19 meetings)
8
11
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Last 10: Jarnkrok 3-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
5
Jarnkrok
Larkin
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
6
Jarnkrok
Larkin
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
1
0
Jarnkrok
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (3,354)
51.7% (9,019)
-2.4%
Power Play
51.9% (258)
58.5% (2,125)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (640)
50.2% (1,122)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Jarnkrok is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,982).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Home
50.6% (2,261)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
45.3% (1,991)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Larkin
P1
47.7%
52.7%
P2
48.0%
53.1%
P3
48.8%
52.1%
OT
40.5%
58.4%
Final 5 min
48.7%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 10:59 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 04:54 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 08:19 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 2 | 03:58 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 1 | 13:29 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 4, 2019 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 21, 2016 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 21, 2016 | 2 | 08:17 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |