Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 49.6% vs Larkin 55.0% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 57.7%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 53.9%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 63.5%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Jarnkrok
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
1
0
Jarnkrok
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (82)
55.9% (943)
-2.2%
Power Play
10.0% (10)
57.4% (244)
-47.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (40)
46.2% (106)
+3.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +47.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Jarnkrok is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (101).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Home
50.7% (71)
56.0% (654)
Away
47.5% (61)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Larkin
P1
52.1%
54.4%
P2
40.5%
55.9%
P3
56.1%
55.2%
OT
0.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.2%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 10:59 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |