Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 46.7% vs Larkin 49.5% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 55.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 66.3%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 53.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Last 8: Jarnkrok 4-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
3
0
Jarnkrok
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
4
Jarnkrok
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
1
0
Jarnkrok
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (74)
49.5% (562)
-6.3%
Power Play
30.0% (10)
51.5% (134)
-21.5%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
41.2% (34)
+13.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Jarnkrok is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (70).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Larkin is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Larkin
Home
42.9% (42)
48.5% (388)
Away
43.4% (53)
50.6% (342)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Larkin
P1
43.8%
52.1%
P2
41.2%
46.9%
P3
44.8%
49.2%
Final 5 min
38.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
43.2%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 08:19 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 2 | 03:58 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 1 | 13:29 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |