Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarnkrok on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 48.1% vs Sturm 56.1% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 52.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 88.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 65.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Jarnkrok
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Jarnkrok
Sturm
Last 9: Jarnkrok 5-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
4
2
Jarnkrok
Sturm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Jarnkrok
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (3,354)
57.1% (2,719)
-7.8%
Power Play
51.9% (258)
61.3% (62)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (640)
51.0% (498)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Jarnkrok is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,982).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Sturm
Home
50.6% (2,261)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
45.3% (1,991)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Sturm
P1
47.7%
56.5%
P2
48.0%
54.9%
P3
48.8%
57.4%
OT
40.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
48.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 04:01 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 14:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 03:25 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 13:22 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |