Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarnkrok on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 51.0% vs Sturm 52.5% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 64.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 85.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 60.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Jarnkrok
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Jarnkrok
Sturm
Last 8: Jarnkrok 5-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
4
1
Jarnkrok
Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Jarnkrok
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (326)
54.0% (480)
-2.2%
Power Play
54.4% (79)
28.6% (7)
+25.8%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (62)
50.0% (102)
-6.5%
On power play, Jarnkrok has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Jarnkrok is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Sturm is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Sturm
Home
53.0% (281)
54.0% (287)
Away
48.4% (186)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Sturm
P1
51.6%
53.5%
P2
50.6%
51.0%
P3
51.5%
55.1%
OT
50.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 14:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 03:25 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 13:22 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |