Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 49.5% vs Hertl 51.4% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 56.4%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 62.2%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 65.7%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Last 9: Jarnkrok 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jarnkrok
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
5
Jarnkrok
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (742)
50.4% (367)
+0.3%
Power Play
62.1% (29)
64.6% (48)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (144)
49.2% (59)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jarnkrok is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Hertl is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Home
52.4% (489)
50.9% (220)
Away
46.0% (426)
52.4% (254)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Hertl
P1
51.9%
52.7%
P2
50.3%
52.8%
P3
46.4%
49.7%
OT
37.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2017 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 2 | 08:11 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 16:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 09:06 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 03:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 2 | 14:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 2 | 07:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |