Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 48.1% vs Hertl 54.2% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 20-11 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 87.4%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 78.1%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 78.1%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 82.0%
82.0%
18.0%
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
20
(31 meetings)
11
20
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Last 10: Jarnkrok 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
8
Jarnkrok
Hertl
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
10
Jarnkrok
Hertl
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
3
2
Jarnkrok
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (3,354)
53.8% (8,268)
-4.5%
Power Play
51.9% (258)
59.3% (1,975)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (640)
46.3% (806)
-5.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jarnkrok is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,982).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Home
50.6% (2,261)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
45.3% (1,991)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Hertl
P1
47.7%
53.6%
P2
48.0%
54.1%
P3
48.8%
55.3%
OT
40.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
48.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 05:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 09:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 07:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 08:16 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 18:35 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:36 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 15:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 08:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:17 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 14:59 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |