Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Jarnkrok wins 40.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 47.4% vs Hertl 54.5% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 65.5%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 65.3%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 72.2%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Jarnkrok
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Jarnkrok
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (56)
54.1% (1,117)
-13.0%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
59.8% (296)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (26)
34.4% (32)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Jarnkrok has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jarnkrok is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (80).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Home
55.3% (47)
54.3% (709)
Away
34.0% (47)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Hertl
P1
33.3%
51.6%
P2
50.0%
53.6%
P3
48.5%
58.6%
Final 5 min
40.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
44.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 09:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 07:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |