Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Verhaeghe on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Verhaeghe wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Verhaeghe 47.3% vs Larkin 55.0% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 81.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 69.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Verhaeghe
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Verhaeghe
Larkin
Last 5: Verhaeghe 3-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Verhaeghe
3
0
Verhaeghe
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Verhaeghe
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Verhaeghe
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (72)
55.9% (943)
-12.8%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
57.4% (244)
-7.4%
On even strength, Larkin has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Verhaeghe is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (54).
Verhaeghe shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Verhaeghe
Larkin
Home
43.9% (41)
56.0% (654)
Away
44.2% (43)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Verhaeghe
Larkin
P1
41.2%
54.4%
P2
55.2%
55.9%
P3
33.3%
55.2%
Final 5 min
46.2%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Verhaeghe
38.0%▼
42.0%
44.0%
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:26 | Offensive | Carter Verhaeghe |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Carter Verhaeghe |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 2 | 03:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 09:06 | Offensive | Carter Verhaeghe |