Scouting Report
Casey Cizikas holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Cizikas wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 53.5% vs Larkin 52.4% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Cizikas
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Cizikas
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Cizikas
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (524)
51.7% (878)
+2.7%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
58.5% (246)
+41.5%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
48.2% (166)
-0.6%
On power play, Cizikas has a +41.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Cizikas is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Cizikas shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Larkin
Home
53.3% (270)
52.4% (647)
Away
54.8% (299)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Cizikas
Larkin
P1
57.2%
52.2%
P2
56.3%
53.1%
P3
49.5%
51.7%
OT
33.3%
61.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
54.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |