Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Cizikas wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 52.9% vs Larkin 55.0% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.7%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 84.1%
Neutral zone
Cizikas 58.8%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Cizikas
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Cizikas
Larkin
Last 9: Cizikas 2-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
4
Cizikas
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cizikas
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Cizikas
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (525)
55.9% (943)
-2.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
57.4% (244)
+42.6%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (120)
46.2% (106)
+5.5%
On power play, Cizikas has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Cizikas is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Cizikas shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Larkin
Home
58.6% (307)
56.0% (654)
Away
48.7% (339)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Cizikas
Larkin
P1
56.7%
54.4%
P2
49.8%
55.9%
P3
53.8%
55.2%
OT
100.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
53.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 04:57 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 05:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |