Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Cizikas wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 53.0% vs Larkin 54.1% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 72.8%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 81.0%
Neutral zone
Cizikas 58.3%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Cizikas
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Cizikas
Larkin
Last 10: Cizikas 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
4
Cizikas
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cizikas
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (757)
53.6% (886)
+2.8%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
59.3% (317)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (165)
48.7% (152)
-8.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Cizikas is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Cizikas shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Larkin
Home
55.0% (473)
56.6% (700)
Away
51.7% (466)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Cizikas
Larkin
P1
54.9%
55.4%
P2
50.8%
54.7%
P3
54.5%
52.7%
OT
50.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
55.2%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
53.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 04:39 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 04:36 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 15:54 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 10:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 07:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 05:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |