Scouting Report
Casey Cizikas holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Cizikas wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 53.5% vs Dowd 49.1% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cizikas 73.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 76.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Cizikas
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Cizikas
Dowd
Last 8: Cizikas 4-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Cizikas
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Cizikas
Dowd
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (524)
51.7% (644)
+2.7%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
0.0% (2)
+100.0%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
41.6% (221)
+6.0%
On power play, Cizikas has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Cizikas is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (177).
Cizikas shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Dowd
Home
53.3% (270)
48.6% (451)
Away
54.8% (299)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Cizikas
Dowd
P1
57.2%
49.1%
P2
56.3%
47.3%
P3
49.5%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
54.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:44 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:08 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 15:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:32 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |