Scouting Report
Casey Cizikas holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cizikas on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cizikas wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 54.4% vs Cates 45.1% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cizikas 84.9%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 74.4%
Neutral zone
Cizikas 76.9%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Cizikas
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Cizikas
Cates
Last 5: Cizikas 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
4
0
Cizikas
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Cizikas
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (576)
46.7% (912)
+9.7%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
33.9% (56)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (33)
35.0% (137)
-1.7%
On power play, Cizikas has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Cizikas is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (408).
Cizikas shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Cates
Home
55.4% (303)
46.1% (521)
Away
54.9% (308)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Cizikas
Cates
P1
53.0%
48.0%
P2
56.0%
42.3%
P3
56.2%
44.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
55.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:09 | Defensive | Noah Cates |