Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Cizikas wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 53.5% vs Hertl 57.2% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.4%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 69.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.2%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Cizikas
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Cizikas
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cizikas
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (524)
58.1% (823)
-3.7%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
56.2% (265)
+43.8%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
62.9% (35)
-15.3%
On power play, Cizikas has a +43.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cizikas is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Cizikas shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Hertl
Home
53.3% (270)
59.7% (561)
Away
54.8% (299)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Cizikas
Hertl
P1
57.2%
51.6%
P2
56.3%
63.8%
P3
49.5%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
54.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |