Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cizikas on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cizikas wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 53.0% vs Hertl 54.5% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 88.2%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 83.0%
Neutral zone
Cizikas 51.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Cizikas
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Cizikas
Hertl
Last 9: Cizikas 7-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Cizikas
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
2
0
Cizikas
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cizikas
4
0
Cizikas
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (757)
54.1% (1,117)
+2.3%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
59.8% (296)
-18.6%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (165)
34.4% (32)
+6.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cizikas is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Cizikas shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Hertl
Home
55.0% (473)
54.3% (709)
Away
51.7% (466)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Cizikas
Hertl
P1
54.9%
51.6%
P2
50.8%
53.6%
P3
54.5%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
53.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:24 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 07:31 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 04:13 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 14:48 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 18:34 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 13:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 09:40 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |