Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cizikas wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 52.9% vs Hertl 56.8% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.9%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 81.4%
Neutral zone
Cizikas 60.7%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 59.9%
59.9%
40.1%
Cizikas
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Cizikas
Hertl
Last 6: Cizikas 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Cizikas
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Cizikas
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (525)
57.0% (718)
-3.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
64.9% (188)
+35.1%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (120)
44.2% (77)
+7.5%
On power play, Cizikas has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cizikas is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Cizikas shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Hertl
Home
58.6% (307)
59.2% (463)
Away
48.7% (339)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Cizikas
Hertl
P1
56.7%
56.3%
P2
49.8%
55.4%
P3
53.8%
60.5%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
53.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 18:55 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 08:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 12:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 09:28 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 02:55 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |