Casey Mittelstadt vs Connor Bedard
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Mittelstadt wins 59.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bedard shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 52.0% vs Bedard 47.7% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 70.5%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 50.3%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 55.6%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Mittelstadt
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Mittelstadt
Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
Bedard
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (128)
44.9% (283)
+6.7%
Power Play
60.0% (25)
76.2% (21)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
45.5% (11)
+54.5%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +54.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Mittelstadt is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (62).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Bedard is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Bedard
Home
60.7% (89)
52.4% (145)
Away
43.1% (65)
42.4% (170)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Bedard
P1
46.3%
37.9%
P2
52.9%
48.6%
P3
58.6%
53.2%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
48.0%▼
53.0%
53.2%
Bedard
32.0%▼
47.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |