Casey Mittelstadt vs Dylan Larkin
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 46.4% vs Larkin 54.1% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 79.7%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 83.9%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 79.7%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 81.8%
81.8%
18.2%
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Last 8: Mittelstadt 1-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Mittelstadt
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
4
Mittelstadt
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (569)
53.6% (886)
-8.3%
Power Play
49.6% (135)
59.3% (317)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
48.7% (152)
-8.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Mittelstadt is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Home
45.1% (366)
56.6% (700)
Away
46.8% (370)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Larkin
P1
41.1%
55.4%
P2
51.1%
54.7%
P3
45.9%
52.7%
OT
30.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
44.4%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 16:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 14:47 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 05:22 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 1 | 17:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |