Casey Mittelstadt vs Dylan Larkin
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs Larkin 55.0% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 70.0%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 69.0%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 67.4%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Mittelstadt
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
55.9% (943)
-9.5%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
57.4% (244)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
46.2% (106)
+3.8%
On even strength, Larkin has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Home
47.7% (583)
56.0% (654)
Away
46.4% (541)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Larkin
P1
50.0%
54.4%
P2
46.2%
55.9%
P3
45.5%
55.2%
OT
25.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |