Casey Mittelstadt vs Dylan Larkin
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 45.5% vs Larkin 52.7% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 23-10 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 89.1%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 95.8%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 90.7%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 91.8%
91.8%
8.2%
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
23
(33 meetings)
10
23
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Last 10: Mittelstadt 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
6
Mittelstadt
Larkin
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
7
Mittelstadt
Larkin
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
10
Mittelstadt
Larkin
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (3,937)
51.6% (9,166)
-6.7%
Power Play
49.7% (666)
58.7% (2,164)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (96)
50.4% (1,138)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Mittelstadt is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,793).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (7,972).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Home
46.7% (2,319)
54.0% (6,358)
Away
44.2% (2,380)
51.4% (6,110)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Larkin
P1
46.7%
52.6%
P2
45.9%
53.1%
P3
44.0%
52.2%
OT
36.6%
58.8%
Final 5 min
43.5%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
32.0%▼
48.5%
45.4%
Larkin
64.0%▲
55.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | OT | 01:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:17 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:22 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:10 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 18:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 14:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |