Casey Mittelstadt vs Dylan Larkin
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Larkin 54.2% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 75.7%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 81.3%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 75.8%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Last 6: Mittelstadt 1-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Mittelstadt
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Mittelstadt
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Mittelstadt
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
52.6% (1,117)
-7.9%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
60.7% (305)
-20.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
55.9% (177)
-15.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Home
46.0% (491)
54.7% (783)
Away
42.4% (512)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Larkin
P1
44.0%
55.9%
P2
46.4%
56.1%
P3
41.9%
51.1%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.3%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:10 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 18:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 14:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |