Casey Mittelstadt vs Frederick Gaudreau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.9% vs Gaudreau 43.9% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 92.7%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 62.3%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 71.0%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 78.9%
78.9%
21.1%
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
0
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
0
1
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (139)
45.0% (389)
+5.4%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
31.8% (22)
+23.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
37.6% (125)
+62.4%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +62.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Mittelstadt is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (427).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
Home
59.3% (91)
42.6% (277)
Away
42.5% (80)
42.9% (259)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
P1
48.8%
43.8%
P2
49.1%
44.8%
P3
56.7%
39.2%
Final 5 min
54.5%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:46 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |