Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 49.2% vs Eller 50.3% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 66.7%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 57.3%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 57.5%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Mittelstadt
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
7
(7 meetings)
0
7
Mittelstadt
Eller
Last 7: Mittelstadt 0-7 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
3
Mittelstadt
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
2
Mittelstadt
Eller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
2
Mittelstadt
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (345)
49.4% (518)
-3.3%
Power Play
60.5% (86)
57.6% (33)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
52.8% (108)
-2.8%
On even strength, Eller has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Eller is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (361).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Eller
Home
47.3% (224)
49.0% (304)
Away
50.7% (217)
51.5% (355)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Eller
P1
51.8%
55.5%
P2
51.0%
44.0%
P3
44.9%
53.2%
OT
40.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
55.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
49.0%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 07:37 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 2 | 16:20 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 11:39 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 08:34 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 05:15 | Neutral | Lars Eller |