Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs Eller 52.0% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 82.2%
Defensive zone
Eller 79.4%
Neutral zone
Eller 51.6%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Mittelstadt
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Mittelstadt
Eller
Last 10: Mittelstadt 5-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
0
Mittelstadt
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
5
Mittelstadt
Eller
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
52.8% (742)
-6.4%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
67.6% (34)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
46.2% (156)
+3.8%
On power play, Eller has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Eller
Home
47.7% (583)
54.5% (448)
Away
46.4% (541)
50.2% (484)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Eller
P1
50.0%
52.8%
P2
46.2%
50.9%
P3
45.5%
53.4%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 01:42 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 13:12 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:10 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:27 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:56 | Defensive | Lars Eller |