Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Eller 51.9% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 72.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 51.0%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 55.1%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Mittelstadt
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Mittelstadt
Eller
Last 10: Mittelstadt 4-6 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
2
Mittelstadt
Eller
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
3
Mittelstadt
Eller
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Mittelstadt
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
52.8% (650)
-8.1%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
69.2% (13)
-29.0%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
45.5% (88)
-5.5%
On power play, Eller has a +29.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Eller
Home
46.0% (491)
52.6% (340)
Away
42.4% (512)
51.8% (411)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Eller
P1
44.0%
52.4%
P2
46.4%
54.1%
P3
41.9%
50.0%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.3%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 15:13 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 05:14 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 13:58 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 01:42 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 04:43 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |