Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Mittelstadt wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 46.4% vs Paul 53.4% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 80.9%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 71.6%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 74.2%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 76.4%
76.4%
23.6%
Mittelstadt
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Mittelstadt
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Mittelstadt
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Mittelstadt
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (569)
53.8% (753)
-8.5%
Power Play
49.6% (135)
58.9% (90)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
47.4% (78)
-6.8%
On power play, Paul has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Mittelstadt is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Paul
Home
45.1% (366)
54.2% (450)
Away
46.8% (370)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Paul
P1
41.1%
58.2%
P2
51.1%
50.6%
P3
45.9%
52.9%
OT
30.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.4%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 18:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:40 | Neutral | Nick Paul |