Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Paul 50.0% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 50.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 73.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 65.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Mittelstadt
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Mittelstadt
Paul
Last 9: Mittelstadt 5-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
0
Mittelstadt
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
0
Mittelstadt
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
4
Mittelstadt
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
48.8% (666)
-4.1%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
53.8% (65)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
60.0% (55)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Paul
Home
46.0% (491)
49.7% (348)
Away
42.4% (512)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Paul
P1
44.0%
51.0%
P2
46.4%
47.4%
P3
41.9%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.3%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 11:35 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |