Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 45.6% vs Paul 52.2% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 17-7 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 90.6%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 84.4%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 87.5%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 87.8%
87.8%
12.2%
Mittelstadt
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
17
(24 meetings)
7
17
Mittelstadt
Paul
Last 10: Mittelstadt 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Mittelstadt
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
4
Mittelstadt
Paul
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
9
Mittelstadt
Paul
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (3,922)
52.5% (3,796)
-7.5%
Power Play
49.7% (666)
56.5% (480)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (96)
46.7% (574)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Mittelstadt is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,780).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Paul
Home
46.7% (2,316)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
44.3% (2,368)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Paul
P1
46.8%
53.9%
P2
46.1%
51.0%
P3
44.0%
52.0%
OT
36.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 11:35 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 18:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:40 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 08:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |