Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 46.4% vs Cates 40.4% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Mittelstadt leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 87.9%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 51.7%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 74.5%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 69.5%
69.5%
30.5%
Mittelstadt
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Mittelstadt
Cates
Last 10: Mittelstadt 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
1
Mittelstadt
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
4
1
Mittelstadt
Cates
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Mittelstadt
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (569)
40.4% (841)
+4.9%
Power Play
49.6% (135)
42.4% (66)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
32.7% (147)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Mittelstadt is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Cates
Home
45.1% (366)
38.2% (566)
Away
46.8% (370)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Cates
P1
41.1%
40.5%
P2
51.1%
42.4%
P3
45.9%
35.3%
OT
30.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
44.4%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 05:11 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 04:31 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 00:44 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 15:01 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 14:48 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 07:26 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 3 | 04:13 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 19:09 | Neutral | Noah Cates |