Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs Cates 45.8% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 64.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 61.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 60.7%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Mittelstadt
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Mittelstadt
Cates
Last 10: Mittelstadt 4-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
1
Mittelstadt
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Mittelstadt
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Mittelstadt
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
44.3% (271)
+2.1%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
77.8% (18)
-27.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
31.7% (41)
+18.3%
On power play, Cates has a +27.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Cates
Home
47.7% (583)
52.0% (148)
Away
46.4% (541)
38.5% (182)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Cates
P1
50.0%
42.7%
P2
46.2%
42.9%
P3
45.5%
48.5%
Final 5 min
43.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2023 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 3 | 03:03 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 1 | 05:24 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |