Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.2% vs 44.6%). Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Cates 45.1% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 69.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 69.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 56.5%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Mittelstadt
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Mittelstadt
Cates
Last 5: Mittelstadt 3-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
0
Mittelstadt
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Mittelstadt
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
46.7% (912)
-2.0%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
33.9% (56)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
35.0% (137)
+5.0%
On power play, Mittelstadt has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Cates
Home
46.0% (491)
46.1% (521)
Away
42.4% (512)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Cates
P1
44.0%
48.0%
P2
46.4%
42.3%
P3
41.9%
44.3%
OT
50.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
39.3%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:52 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 14:35 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:23 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |