Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 75.5%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 81.4%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 75.8%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 77.4%
77.4%
22.6%
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Last 10: Mittelstadt 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Mittelstadt
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
1
Mittelstadt
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Mittelstadt
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (139)
58.1% (823)
-7.7%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
56.2% (265)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
62.9% (35)
+37.1%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mittelstadt is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (103).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Home
59.3% (91)
59.7% (561)
Away
42.5% (80)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Hertl
P1
48.8%
51.6%
P2
49.1%
63.8%
P3
56.7%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:38 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:42 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 03:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |