Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Mittelstadt wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 80.5%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 85.9%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 85.5%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Mittelstadt
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Mittelstadt
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Mittelstadt
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
57.0% (718)
-10.6%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
64.9% (188)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
44.2% (77)
+5.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Home
47.7% (583)
59.2% (463)
Away
46.4% (541)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Hertl
P1
50.0%
56.3%
P2
46.2%
55.4%
P3
45.5%
60.5%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |