Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 59.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 68.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Last 7: Mittelstadt 4-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Mittelstadt
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
1
Mittelstadt
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
54.1% (717)
-9.4%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
61.9% (210)
-21.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
58.1% (31)
-18.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Home
46.0% (491)
58.1% (492)
Away
42.4% (512)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Hertl
P1
44.0%
57.1%
P2
46.4%
54.0%
P3
41.9%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.3%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
48.0%▼
53.0%
44.2%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 05:47 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 02:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:17 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:47 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 14:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 11:15 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |