Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Paul 53.3% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 58.6%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 57.4%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 52.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Stephenson
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Stephenson
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
1
0
Stephenson
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (801)
53.2% (327)
-1.1%
Power Play
62.0% (242)
61.4% (57)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (183)
50.0% (32)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Stephenson is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (751).
Stephenson shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Paul
Home
53.1% (672)
54.6% (183)
Away
51.1% (554)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Stephenson
Paul
P1
54.6%
56.3%
P2
51.3%
54.8%
P3
51.2%
52.4%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.9%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |