Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Stephenson wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephenson 59.0%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 56.3%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 58.2%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Stephenson
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Stephenson
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Stephenson
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Stephenson
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (829)
53.1% (710)
-1.5%
Power Play
62.7% (142)
57.3% (199)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (79)
58.0% (69)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Stephenson is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Stephenson shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Paul
Home
52.5% (499)
56.0% (466)
Away
52.6% (551)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Stephenson
Paul
P1
50.2%
57.2%
P2
55.7%
54.9%
P3
50.9%
51.5%
OT
63.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 01:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |