Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 51.5% vs Paul 50.0% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 64.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 64.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 64.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 64.3%
35.7%
64.3%
Stephenson
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Stephenson
Paul
Last 7: Stephenson 1-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stephenson
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
5
Stephenson
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (1,041)
48.8% (666)
+2.4%
Power Play
57.8% (211)
53.8% (65)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (222)
60.0% (55)
-12.3%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Stephenson is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Stephenson shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Paul
Home
52.2% (751)
49.7% (348)
Away
51.0% (723)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Stephenson
Paul
P1
50.4%
51.0%
P2
51.5%
47.4%
P3
53.3%
51.5%
OT
40.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
51.6%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:25 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 06:24 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |