Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 51.9% vs Paul 50.4% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Stephenson 69.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 69.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 64.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Stephenson
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Stephenson
Paul
Last 10: Stephenson 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Stephenson
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
3
Stephenson
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Stephenson
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (993)
53.0% (644)
-2.0%
Power Play
60.5% (152)
37.5% (24)
+23.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (110)
42.9% (177)
+7.1%
On power play, Stephenson has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Stephenson is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (851).
Stephenson shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Paul
Home
53.3% (634)
52.5% (516)
Away
50.7% (621)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Stephenson
Paul
P1
50.7%
47.6%
P2
51.2%
48.4%
P3
53.2%
54.5%
OT
70.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 13:46 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 00:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 17:03 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 12:56 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 17:22 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 04:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |