Chandler Stephenson vs Noah Cates
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Cates 45.5% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 67.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 62.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Stephenson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Stephenson
Cates
Last 8: Stephenson 3-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Stephenson
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
2
1
Stephenson
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Stephenson
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (801)
45.4% (712)
+6.7%
Power Play
62.0% (242)
42.2% (102)
+19.8%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (183)
44.7% (47)
-4.8%
On power play, Stephenson has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Stephenson is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (751).
Stephenson shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Cates
Home
53.1% (672)
46.3% (423)
Away
51.1% (554)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Stephenson
Cates
P1
54.6%
46.3%
P2
51.3%
47.1%
P3
51.2%
42.1%
OT
50.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
51.9%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:33 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:13 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Noah Cates |