Chandler Stephenson vs Steven Stamkos
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Stephenson wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 67.7%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 76.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 54.4%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Stephenson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Stephenson
Stamkos
Last 9: Stephenson 5-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
1
0
Stephenson
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Stephenson
Stamkos
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stephenson
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (801)
56.1% (342)
-4.0%
Power Play
62.0% (242)
53.3% (92)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (183)
62.5% (8)
-22.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stephenson is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (475).
Stephenson shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Stamkos
Home
53.1% (672)
53.4% (208)
Away
51.1% (554)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Stephenson
Stamkos
P1
54.6%
55.6%
P2
51.3%
52.8%
P3
51.2%
59.1%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 11:07 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 02:52 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 08:09 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |